In view of the lack of information, this paper studies the effect of production decision of the manufacturer on the retailer and the manufacturers optimal decisions, and the performance and efficiency of the supply chain system. This study finds that the influence of demand expectation on supply chain performance is bigger than that of the variance. When the variance of demand is bigger than zero, the efficiency of the supply chain will increase and be close to but less than 75%. And only the variance is equal to zero, the value of the supply chain efficiency can reach the supply chain efficiency under the condition of deterministic demand and linear demand function.